It's Carolina/State This Weekend For All The (Leftover) Marbles

The really sucky ones that are chipped that nobody wants.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Yeah, this is the second meeting between State and Carolina this year, and if it's possible, there's even LESS interest in this game than the previous go-round in Raleigh.

In January we knew Carolina was struggling, but State's win over Duke was still fresh enough in everyone's memories to give hope that the Heels could be beaten.

After losing that game--and every conference game since--the wheels have come off and the team that once showed fight and grit and hustle is now taking poor shots, standing around on offense and giving up easy buckets on defense.

So both teams, State and Carolina, enter this game with a "well, let's just get this over with" mentality. Could this be the first time NEITHER teams' fanbases care to attend this game? Could the Dean Dome be half-filled for this one? It's possible, especially given the weather.

If State wins tomorrow, that's great. Anytime you can beat Carolina it's a plus, and it would help pad Sidney's lousy record against the Heels (1 win so far). But just about everybody on both sides of this once-great war have checked out, including seemingly some of the players.

Tip is at 4:00, for those that care.

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At This Point, The Pack Is Pretty Much...

...mailing it in.

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Per Rivals, LB Coach Andy McCullom Heading To Ga. Tech

Not hiring Paul Johnson when we had the chance...the gift that keeps on giving.

State's defense sucked out loud last season, but by most accounts, the strength of the defensive coaching staff was McCullom. Not only was a great linebackers coach, he really helped mine the state of Georgia for talent.

Now the Pack must look to replace a talented coach and tremendous recruiter...one who now has an office down 85 in Atlanta, going head-to-head against the Pack on the recruiting trail.

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Georgia Tech LiveBlog!

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Virginia Recap

College Basketball

Stat	Game
Points	47	59
FG Att	48	54
FG Made	18	22
FG Pct	37.5	40.7
FT Att	16	13
FT Made	9	9
FT Pct	56.3	69.2
3pt FG Att	11	16
3pt FG Made	2	6
3pt FG Pct	18.2	37.5
Rebounds	30	40
Off Rebs	9	13
Def Rebs	21	27
Team Rebs	4	6
Assists	6	14
Steals	4	5
Blocks	4	1
Turnovers	7	8
Fouls	17	19

It pains me to say the following, but right now it's how I see it. I've been one of the last hold outs to say so, and I may be someday proven wrong along with everyone else. Still...

Sidney Lowe is losing me as a believer.

It happened tonight in the second half. It's not THAT we lost, but HOW we lost. Disjointed offensive possessions, which led to poor shot selection, which eventually led to a complete offensive breakdown in a game that was entirely within reach. The team looked like a bunch of guys playing ball at the Y. There was ZERO leadership on the court.

Now I'm starting to believe that there's a leadership vacuum on the bench, as well. The team just did not respond to any presumed coaching the staff tried. Then again, State got back on the bus with two more timeouts left, so perhaps Sidney plans to burn those coaching in practice this week when there's not as much distracting activity going on around them. Like, you know, screaming opposing fans or meddling officials.

Worst of all, though: this team QUIT tonight. Without about 6:00 minutes to go, in the midst of another scoring drought that's become a pattern of late, this team rolled over and started playing street ball.

Scott Wood has no confidence in his shot. Javier Gonzalez plays hard about 40% of the time he's on the court. The offense is simply pass it around the perimeter and try to get it into Tracy. There's little motion through the paint, and most of the times the perimeter folks seem unwilling to shoot when the ball gets kicked back out to them. I didn't see anything on the court tonight that made me think, "When Ryan Harrow and Lorenzo Brown get here next year, all these issues will be fixed." I instead thought, "Damn, these five-star guards are going to hate playing in THIS mess."

After two years of using the team chemistry excuse to explain away ineffectiveness, now I have to wonder what's the last refuge Sidney has before all the fingers start pointing his way? After such an inspiring win at home against Duke, this team has completely fallen apart. What should have turned into a bump for a team that was winning good games and losing close ones, the Duke game is a mere memory now of what this team is capable of and a reminder that this team is currently falling far short of that.

There are still eight conference games left. There's time for this team to regain its footing. But this stretch of games (Maryland, UNC and Virginia) may be the one we look back at when we ask ourselves, "Where was the crossroads where it went south for good?"

As it is now, Sidney--for the first time in his tenure--has to win me back into his corner if I'm to believe he can be the answer for State long-term.

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Talent Usage Rating: Quantifying The Amount Of Talent On The Floor

We often hear folks say, "this team is more talented than ours..."

But just how much more talent? More importantly--how much of this talent is actually making its way onto the hardwood?

A bench full of 5-star talent that never sees the floor ultimately doesn't have any impact the outcome of a game. That makes it mighty tough to use the "more talented" argument.

So, in an effort to help quantify just how much talent each team is bringing to bear each game, I've put together a spreadsheet featuring the "Talent Usage Rating," a formula that is a cumulative of a team's player's minutes divided by 200, multiplied by their average recruiting ranking.

In other words, a team's Talent Usage Rating = (Player A's Avg Rating * (Avg Mins Played/200)) + (Player B's Avg Rating * (Avg Mins Played/200)) + etc.;

Here the spreadsheet (factoring in games as of Monday evening):



A couple of things to note about the numbers:

• The average minutes played for each player is calculated by taking their total minutes played divided by the total number of games played by the team. Doing so eliminates the possibility of a player's average minute stats being inflated by not playing in one or more games.
• The average star rating for every player is determined by averaging the Scout and Rivals rankings. There are more ranking services out there, but these two are the most respected. Though there was some difference in the rating of certain players, for the most part both sites agreed on the star ratings of most players, and there was never more than a one-star difference for any player.
• Players that did not show up on the Scout or Rivals sites or were listed as "NR" were given 1-star ratings.
  

As you can see, a team simply having the highest average star rating doesn't necessarily mean they have more talent on the floor than the next guy. Florid State's TUR is nearly 2% higher than Carolina's, despite the fact that UNC's roster averages a nearly 4% higher star rating per player. In other words, while FSU's overall talent level on the roster may be behind Carolina's, they put more of their higher-rated players out on the floor for more significant minutes. So when the Heels face off against the Noles on February 24th, don't assume that the Heels have a talent advantage on the court.

With the 11th-worst TUR and 10th-worst overall average roster star rating, Virginia is clearly getting the most "bang for their buck." They have talent where they need it (Sylven Landesberg) and are getting great contributions elsewhere from lower-rated players.

On the flip side, the Tar Heels are clearly under-performing relative to their TUR, but that's no new news to the entire college basketball community.

For those that want to see the entire breakdown of each roster that led to the rating calculations, here's the complete spreadsheet:

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ACCSports.com Look At State's Recruiting Class

Things haven't been finalized at this point, of course...life in the fast lane can lead to some signing day surprises. However, most of State's recruiting class is in place by now, and the folks at ACCSports.com have given us a pretty good rundown of the class to this point:

N.C. State Recruiting Storylines:

• This should be the first recruiting cycle since 2006 that N.C. State has not signed 25 or more players. In what turned out to be Chuck Amato’s final class at head coach of the Wolfpack back in 2006, they took the same number of prospects (20) that NCSU has taken this year. The Wolfpack had 25 signees in 2007, 26 signees in 2008, and 27 signees in 2009.
  
  
• NCSU enjoyed as much recruiting success in the state of North Carolina as anyone in this year’s cycle, landing three of the top six players in the Rivals.com state rankings - Rob Crisp of Raleigh Athens Drive (No. 2), Anthony Creecy of Southern Durham (No. 5), and David Amerson of Greensboro Dudley (No. 6). In all, the Wolfpack have five prospects in the top 20, Fre’Shad Hunter of Cary (No. 11) and Tyler Brosius of Waynesville Tuscola (No. 20).
  
  
• Georgia was once again a kind place for the Wolfpack this year, as N.C. State landed six players from the Peach State. This marks the third straight recruiting cycle under O’Brien in which the Wolfpack have signed at least four prospects from Georgia. In 2009 N.C. State got a whopping seven prospects out of the Peach State, which means that the Wolfpack have signed a total of 13 players from Georgia in the last two recruiting cycles alone.
  
  
• Offensive tackle Rob Crisp is the first five-star prospect in the Rivals.com rankings to sign with the Wolfpack since DeMario Pressley of Greensboro (N.C.) Dudley back in 2004. The No. 2 prospect in North Carolina and the No. 13 prospect in the Rivals 100, Crisp committed to N.C. State in early April. He pledged to the Wolfpack the same day as his good friend Peter Singer, who also happens to be the son of Crisp’s guardian.

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