State 69, Maryland 74

NCAA Basketball Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

I'll post a recap once I sober up and cool down.

View the complete entry of "State 69, Maryland 74"

ACC Tournament LiveBlog

View the complete entry of "ACC Tournament LiveBlog"

Great Moments in Overproduction: ESPN's Opera Man Tournament Intros

Oh, ESPN...you thought you had completely wiped this off the face of the earth. But thankfully, someone out there took the audio and saved it for posterity.

Who could ever forget the horridicity of the ACC Tournament intro videos from last year? Somehow, the idea of having a dude stand in an empty gym belting out "HURRICANES! HURRICANES, HURRICANES, HURRICANES!" made it past all the various levels of production quality control.

"WEARING THE COLORS PROUD-LY!"

Maybe Roy Williams is right...maybe the ACC Tournament really has fallen off the radar. Otherwise, how does one explain getting the third-rate production treatment?

CRANK IT UP!

View the complete entry of "Great Moments in Overproduction: ESPN's Opera Man Tournament Intros"

How to get fired: Watching the ACC Tournament at work

For those of you looking to keep tabs on the tournament while at work, you can watch all the games (but one...ours) on your computer at Raycom.com

Just click on the "Watch Live" link in red beside each game. Fill out a quick registration form and voila! Instant ACC tournament!

For those not interested in pushing your luck with the bossman (or bosslady), I'll be posting a LiveBlog here with updates on the games during the 9:00-5:00 hours.

View the complete entry of "How to get fired: Watching the ACC Tournament at work"

It's Tournament Time!

It's been a long four days, it seems, since State's final game of the regular season.

I think a lot of folks, like myself, are eager for the ACC tournament to get underway for a couple of reasons. One, it's the ACC tournament. Two, and more importantly for State fans, it's an opportunity for the team to regain some momentum lost on Sunday. The loss against Miami still stings -- given that State was up nine at the half -- and that loss, coupled with the news that Demarcus Cousins is heading to Memphis, has allowed some pessimism to creep back in.

The tournament will put the Miami game officially behind the team and its fans.

State will face off against Maryland in a game most folks are talking about because of Greivis Vasquez's in-your-face three at the end of the game. Truthfully, though, I don't get the sense from anyone other than the media that his three was all THAT big of a deal. Compared to the furor over Mike Copeland's attempted dunk and Ben McCauley's hard foul to prevent it at the end of the Carolina game, Vasquez's three has gotten significantly less rise out of the State team, fans and coaches.

Nevertheless, it happened, and State will get a chance to redeem itself this evening at 7:00 in the third game of the day.

(Continues)

The 7:00 Thursday game also happens to be the only game that folks without cable can see. It's the one game ESPN has exclusive rights to -- all the remaining games can be seen on Raycom. So if you tune into WRAL or your local Raycom affiliate at 7:00, don't expect to find the game. You'll need to head over to The Duece, ESPN2. Plan accordingly.

This is a winnable game for the Pack tonight. State proved as much in its loss to Maryland at home three weeks ago when Vasquez put on a one-man show. Had the Pack simply contained Vasquez, I think State would've won that game easily. They'll attempt to do that tonight.

As State fans, you kind of feel good about your draw. The bracket shapes up nicely for a deep run if things fall your way. Maryland is a winnable game, for sure. If you get past them, Wake awaits on Friday. Wake has lost to State once this year in Raleigh and the Pack played them well in Winston Salem. A win against the Deacs would pit State against Duke, most likely, and State played the Blue Devils well in Cameron (though Elliot Williams was not in the lineup at that time and Duke has looked much stronger since his insertion). And beyond Duke, if the Pack gets to Sunday, they could be facing the winner of the FSU/Carolina game and with Ty Lawson's toe acting up (and Roy Williams' "eh" attitude toward the tournament) it could be the Seminoles the Pack faces for the title.

That's a ton of "ifs," though, and it's a very unlikely scenario. But, as we saw in 2007, stranger things can happen. We'll need a performance from someone like Brandon Costner's that year (90 points in four games) to propel us that far. Costner wouldn't be a bad choice to fill that role.

I wish the tournament meant as much now as it did when I was a child. The success of Carolina and Duke and their coaches' insistence on downplaying it has taken the shine off it some. When the ACC essentially became a two-team league, the tide of public opinion on the tournament went with them, but I know that for all the teams in the ACC not named Duke or Carolina, winning the ACC tournament is a very, very big deal, and would mean a great deal to their fanbases, as well. After all, the ACC still considers the tournament champ -- not the regular season champ -- THE ACC champion for that season. With the imbalanced schedules of today, it seems like, more than ever, a tournament is the most fair way to determine the champion for the year. But the folks in Chapel Hill and Durham don't see it that way and most folks have been content to follow their lead in downplaying it.

It's a shame, because for as long as the tournament has been in existence, demand for tickets was so great that they were never available for public sale. One could only get them through your school. Those days are gone as for the first time ever, public tickets for the tournament were made available this year. Certainly the size of the venue (The Georgia Dome) and the state of the economy have played a part in that, but the poo-pooing of the tournament's value has taken its toll, as well.

But that's just how things are these days, I suppose.

View the complete entry of "It's Tournament Time!"

Nice Read: N&O's piece on Bernie Mock

N&O link.

Bernie Mock said he will "definitely" be wearing his Wolfpack-red sweater as he watches the ACC Tournament this week. But as long as North Carolina isn't playing N.C. State, he'll also be cheering the Tar Heel blue "at least a little bit."

Mock, 86, is believed to be the only basketball player to captain both teams. He played forward for the Wolfpack (then known as the "Red Terrors") in 1941-42 and in '42-43, then was an All-Southern Conference center for UNC's "White Phantoms" in 1943-44.

"I never wanted to change schools, change teams,'' said Mock, who is now retired in Waynesville. "But Uncle Sam said I had to go -- so I went."

Gotta love the fact that it took the U.S. government to force Mock to suit up for the Heels.

View the complete entry of "Nice Read: N&O's piece on Bernie Mock"

State 64, Miami 72

NCAA Basketball Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

Bad things happen when you go 12:22 seconds without a bucket. That's just what happened as State watched a 42-36 lead at the 13:22 mark in the second half evaporate over the course of 12 straight missed shots until Javier Gonzalez's three with 1:00 left. At that point it was 56-63 Miami, and State's chances of a road win were dashed.

(Continues)

Neither team shot the ball well, including Miami's megaweapon Jack McClinton who finished three of 15 from the field. Trevor Ferguson -- starting in place of the injured Courtney Fells -- did a solid job of staying in front of McClinton for most of the game. Miami's senior guard finished with 24 for the game, but 16 of those came from the foul line at the end of the game.

Turnovers were again an issue -- 15 for the Pack against Miami's five. Javi played well at the point, with four assists and two TOs, but he stepped up offensively big time, leading all of State's scorers with 19.

With the loss, State finishes 6-10 in the conference and in sole possession of 10th place. State will face Maryland, the seven seed, Thursday evening at 7:00 in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

View the complete entry of "State 64, Miami 72"

A look at Miami, again

NCAA Basketball Stats

Rank and Records	NCST		MIAMI
RPI	#95		#54
Strength of Schedule	#67		#21
Overall	16-12		17-11
Conference	6-9		6-9
Home	14-4		11-4
Away	2-8		4-6
Top 25	1-6		2-5
RPI Top 50	1-7		2-7

Looking at Miami's Four Factors chart, you can see that they've been trending in the wrong direction in three of the four in the month-plus since the Pack last faced them: Offensive Rebounding Rate, Free Throw Rate and Turnover Rate have all gotten worse since late January.

(Continues)

As such, it's not surprising that Miami is a team who's been one of -- if not THE -- biggest disappointment of the conference this year. A preseason top-20 team, the Hurricanes enter their final game of the year with no hope of a winning conference record and no realistic shot at an at-large bid to the big dance.

So the only thing left to play for (other than a #9 seed in the ACC tourney) is pride on senior night. Jack McClinton will be playing his final home game as a 'Cane, and will go down in Hurricanes history as one of the best ever.

Which makes this game a very difficult one for the Pack. Just as we saw Ben McCauley and Courtney Fells (prior to his injury) come out firing in their final home game, State should expect the same from McClinton. And when McClinton gets it going, he's nearly unstoppable.

Making this an even dicier proposition for the Pack is that the aforementioned Fells -- the man State turns to as a defensive stopper -- is out with a groin injury. Javier Gonzalez will likely draw the short straw as the man assigned to get in McClinton's jersey and stay there for the night.

If I'm coach Sidney Lowe, I'm tempted to force McClinton to attack the basket by applying close pressure on the perimeter. I know he's just as deadly inside the arc as outside of it, but if McClinton is reduced to driving to the basket he's at least limited to two points per bucket versus three. If the help defense is effective inside, perhaps you can challenge enough shots to keep him under 50% for the game. Further, if he's taking shots closer to the basket rather than farther away, it should limit the long redounds that so often wind up back in the offense's hands and improve State's defensive rebounding numbers.

As they say, you can't stop him, but perhaps they can contain him to ONLY 15-20 points or so on sub-50% shooting, forcing the rest of the Miami squad to beat the Pack.

For the Pack, they just need to keep feeding Tracy Smith and hope that the absence of Fells in the lineup doesn't hinder them too much offensively and defensively. The Big Three Two will need to show up, and whoever fills Fells' slot in the lineup (CJ Williams?) will need to contribute in some form or fashion.

This game will further shape the tone of the program as it concludes year three heading into the postseason and year four of the Lowe era.

View the complete entry of "A look at Miami, again"

Kentucky, NC State basketball and the danger of "settling"

Kentucky fans, I feel your pain.

Jeff Goodman of Fox Sports wrote a column yesterday outlining the grief Billy Gillispie is catching from Kentucky fans as he struggles through his first two seasons at Kentucky.

Reading the first few paragraphs, it struck me how similar the Kentucky situation of today sounds like State's of 2008 and 2009. A successful coach "run off"...new coach struggling mightily...old coach succeeding elsewhere.

Here's Goodman's piece, slightly modified. See if it doesn't sound like something you've heard before:

Be careful what you wish for.

Kentucky N.C. State fans drove Tubby Smith Herb Sendek out of Lexington Raleigh despite a national title and 10 5 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances.

They wanted a guy who could recruit McDonald's All-Americans.

Someone that could take them back to the promised land — where Big Blue The Pack was competing for national championships again.

Instead, they got Billy Clyde Gillispie Sidney Lowe.

At first, they accepted him like their first-born. It didn't matter that he had only been a head coach for five years never been a college head coach and was a virtual unknown who had been pegged by arguably the one of the most storied program[s] in the history of college basketball.

Billy Clyde Sidney was theirs and they stood behind him — no matter what I or anyone else said. They went nuts when he was unveiled on Midnight Madness at the first open practice two years ago, emerging triumphant from behind four large curtains.

But now, after nearly two ho-hum seasons in the Gillispie Lowe Era, his act is starting to wear thin with the Wildcat Wolfpack Faithful.

It was as if Goodman were filling out the fields of a Herb/Lowe template article. "Be careful what you wish for." Hasn't that been the mantra of the media with respect to Herb and Sidney for the last two years?

The Herb articles have continued through this season, and were at their highest din a few weeks ago when the Sun Devils were knocking on the door of the top 10 and marching toward a Pac-10 title. Now that ASU is taking a March swoon -- at the same time the Pack is showing some improvement -- I doubt we'll hear much bleating from the press on the matter for the time being (save for a miracle title of some sort for ASU).

But to the point, I have sympathy for Kentucky fans.

There comes a time with every fanbase, no matter how successful a coach may have been at one point, that it's clear the coach has plateaued. Smith had reached that point with Kentucky. He'd won a national title early on in his tenure at Kentucky but it was clear that he was just Sweet 16/Elite Eight-good for the long haul, and that's not good enough at Kentucky.

Herb plateaued here, as well, and (for the most part) we all knew it. Even worse, the media knew it -- yet somehow for the media, a coach whose proven level of success is barely getting into the tournament was supposed to be good enough for State.

The same of Smith at Kentucky. He was good enough to win the SEC and get past the first weekend of the dance, but somehow that was supposed to be enough for Kentucky.

For the majority of fans, settling for a plateaued coach is not an option. It shouldn't be. If the ultimate goal of every coach, team and fan is to win a championship and it's become abundantly clear that it won't happen under that coach's watch, then what's the point? Why even play the games? If everything is a prelude to an "eh" finish, then it's time for a change.

State had reached that point.

So had Kentucky.

I don't know if Gillispie is the answer at Kentucky. I don't know if Sidney is the answer at State. But if there's anything I can say to Kentucky fans, it's that there's absolutely no shame in wanting more out of your basketball program, and self-righteous media members should never convince you that "settling" is a viable option. Especially if Kentucky or State is on the front of your jersey -- two programs with multiple NCAA titles and rich basketball traditions.

I would say give Gillispie his due time -- five years. Sidney is turning things around in year three; perhaps Gillispie can show he can do it, too, in Lexington. But if five years pass and either one isn't getting the job done and the fanbase clamors for another change, it's unfair for the media to come after them for aspiring for more than simply "good enough."

View the complete entry of "Kentucky, NC State basketball and the danger of "settling""

Women's ACC Tournament: Wake 59, State 54

For those looking for women's basketball updates, I'll update this post as the game goes along.

UPDATE 1: 13:56 to go in the first, State up 8-4.

UPDATE 2: 7:23 to go in the first, State 16, Wake 17.

UPDATE 3: At the half, State 22, Wake 29. The Deacons have outscored the Pack 25-14 over the last 3/4 of the half. Neither team is shooting well -- State is 8-25 and has not attempted a three pointer, and Wake is 10-30 and 4-12 from three.

UPDATE 4: 4:44 to go in the second half, Wake is starting to run away with this one -- State 39, Wake 53.

UPDATE 5: 1:33 to go in the second half, State's on a 10-2 run to make it interesting, State 49, Wake 55.

UPDATE 6: FINAL, State makes a charge late but Wake wins, 59-54.

View the complete entry of "Women's ACC Tournament: Wake 59, State 54"

State 74, BC 69

NCAA Basketball Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

The Pack puts the clamp down on Tyrese Rice in the second half, holding him to just 14 points, and Ben McCauley goes out in style on senior night to help the Pack score a big victory at home in their final home game of the season.

Rice in fact hit his final bucket with 15:35 left on the clock. Javi Gonzalez stepped his defensive intensity up in the second half on Rice and kept him from hurting the Pack from the field.

(Continues)

Gonzalez had some big plays on the offensive end, as well. He hit a big breakaway bucket late in the game, flipping the ball over the BC defender and into the basket in a shot even Rice would be proud of. He tracked down a huge offensive rebound off a McCauley miss late in the game, as well, helping to seal the deal. Overall, Gonzo finished with six assists against only one turnover -- the kind of play you need in order to succeed in the ACC.

Rebounding and turnovers were big factors tonight. Boston College is a tremendous offensive rebounding team but State beat the Eagles on the glass at both ends of the court, pulling down nine offensive boards to their seven and beat them 20 to 16 on the defensive glass. The Pack controlled the ball well when they had it, only turning the ball over nine times. Both elements combined to limit the Pack's empty possessions, and when the Pack values the basketball, they've shown they can be a very efficient team offensively.

McCauley had a huge game in his final game at the RBC Center. The senior from West Newton, PA, scored 20 points to go with six boards, had two assists, one block and brought a lot of much-needed emotion to a team that could've folded after the tough loss to Maryland Sunday. He hit the final two free throws that sealed the game, holding the release on his last one an extra second just to savor the moment.

For the other senior on the court, Courtney Fells, the news was not as good. He succumbed to a groin injury late in the first half that sideline him the rest of the game. The tragedy of it all was that he was playing so well, having scored 11 points on 3-of-3 shooting from three and four of six overall, with his parents from Mississippi in attendance. He was on his way to a great finish, and now has to wonder if his career is over, depending upon how severe the groin injury turns out to be.

Big win tonight. It gives the Pack energy and momentum heading into the Miami game, who will be reeling after a home loss themselves in their final home game of the year. State will hope to pull off on Saturday what BC could not do tonight.

View the complete entry of "State 74, BC 69"

A look at BC, again

NCAA Basketball Stats

Rank and Records	BC		NCST
RPI	#49		#102
Strength of Schedule	#45		#74
Overall	20-9		15-12
Conference	8-6		5-9
Home	14-4		13-4
Away	5-4		2-8
Top 25	3-4		1-6
RPI Top 50	4-6		2-8

It's Senior Night tonight at the RBC, and round two of the "Man, we better win at least ONE of these final home games" homestand.

Once again the Pack faces off against a team that leans heavily on its point guard for production, though BC -- moreso than Maryland -- can turn to others to pick up the slack when needed.

(Continues)

Sophomores Joe Trapani and Rakim Sanders are the second and third-leading scorers for the Eagles, chipping in 14.1 and 12.3 points per game to augment Tyrese Rice's team-leading 17.5. Trapani leads the team in defensive rebounds and Sanders is tied with Rice for the top number of steals.

Make no mistake about it, though: This is Rice's team. As he goes, so do the Eagles. That he leads the team in points per game and dishes out over five assists per game is indication enough that the offense of BC flows through Rice, point blank.

As Steven pointed out earlier this week, the Eagles are an offensive rebounding monster, second-best in the ACC and one of the best in the country. Keep an eye on BC's Corey Raji and the Pack's ability to keep him off the offensive glass. If Raji wins too many battles on the Eagle's boards, it could be bad news for State.

For the Pack, tonight not only means the final game of Ben McCauley and Courtney Fells' (and possibly Brandon Costner's) careers, it's also the last good look the team will have at halting a skid that could possibly derail and nullify the modicum of progress the team seemed to be making to close out the year. A loss tonight would be the third in a row, with a road date with a good but inconsistent Miami team to finish the year.

Win both these games and that mojo can be regained heading into the ACC tournament. Lose both, and it won't be pretty.

State is a two-point favorite at home, but as they say the home team gets three points, Vegas feels like this one is a pick-em with a slight edge to the Eagles.

McCauley, Fells and Costner have a golden opportunity to conclude their careers at the RBC Center on a high note. It will be critical that they come out and play to their potential.

View the complete entry of "A look at BC, again"

ACCSports.com interview with John Feinstein, story about V

ACCSports.com is doing a two-part One On One interview with author John Feinstein.

In part one, Feinstein relays, among other things, his memories about Jim Valvano and about the times spent hanging out with him in his office 'til the wee hours of the morning:

ACCSports.com:
You’ve told this story before. Valvano wins the national championship in 1983, and he’s still a young, exuberant man in the prime of his career. You two are sitting in his office at 2 a.m. eating pizza, and he’s essentially telling you that he’d already achieved everything he’d ever dreamed of and didn’t know where to go next, right?

Feinstein:
Right. “What am I going to do when I grow up?”

I used to go to Jim’s office after home games, and he would order in pizza because he could never sleep after a game. Jim would order pizza, open up a bottle of wine, and start telling stories. I would just hang out until everybody else left, because I wanted the one-on-one time. That’s when he would get serious.

Jim was as bright as anybody I’ve ever met in any walk of life. I mean that — any walk of life. I remember one time, it was 1988, and he was reading Gorbachev’s book, “Perestroika,” and he told me, “The Soviet Union is gone within three years.” And he was right. It was gone two years and six months later.

He would stretch out on his couch and he would say, “OK, now you’re going to be my psychiatrist for a while.” And he said, “I’ve done basketball. I dreamed of winning a national championship. I won one at 37. Now what do I do?” I don’t want to say he was tormented by that, but he was pulled in so many directions because he was always looking for the next thing.

I always thought the tragedy of his life was that he didn’t find the next thing until cancer found him. That’s when he found his next thing, and it was the remarkable work he did during the last year of his life, setting up the V Foundation.

View the complete entry of "ACCSports.com interview with John Feinstein, story about V"

Maryland 71, State 60

Stats by StatSheet.com

Stats by StatSheet.com

Ugh.

With a shot at a .500 conference mark and momentum heading into the postseason on the line, the Pack laid an absolute egg at the RBC Center last night.

(Continues)

Greivis Vasquez was unstoppable, scoring 33 points while dishing out another five assists. The Pack didn't have a defensive answer for him, no matter what defensive look they threw at him.

Compounding matters, the Pack played poorly when they had the ball. They made one careless turnover after another and shot the ball poorly from the perimeter (26.3%). Tracy Smith was a beast down low in the first half, but when Maryland went to zone on defense, State's perimeter players were unable to get the ball to him as effectively and resorted to three-point shots.

Brandon Costner and Courtney Fells were non-factors again, offensively. Even worse for Fells, he struggled defensively against Vasquez, and when you aren't playing well offensively and you're not effective as a defensive stopper, it looks doubly bad.

It's amazing how one loss can completely kill the renewed optimism surrounding the program. Just a week ago, State had won three of its last four and some overly optimistic folks were talking of running the table.

Now State has lost three of its last four, and after losing a winnable game at home, it feels like all the air has been sucked out of the room. Five-hundred in the conference is gone, and 7-9 seems like a long shot with a road game against Miami left. And if BC plays to their ability and the Pack duplicates the same effort it gave against the Terps in their game against Eagles, 5-11 could loom as a real possibility.

View the complete entry of "Maryland 71, State 60"

A look at Maryland

Stats by StatSheet.com

Rank and Records	UMD		NCST
RPI	#58		#87
Strength of Schedule	#22		#74
Overall	17-10		15-11
Conference	6-7		5-8
Home	14-3		13-3
Away	1-5		2-8
Top 25	2-6		1-6
RPI Top 50	4-9		2-9

(Continues)

With three ACC games remaining, State has a chance to finish 8-8 and .500 in the league. They could also finish 5-11. Finishing the season on a strong note heading into next season starts tonight against the Terps.

The Terrapins, much like Boston College, FSU and Miami, lean on an outstanding guard for their offense. Greivis Vasquez leads the team in points scored, field goals made and free throws made. But Vasquez provides much more than just offense to the Terps. He also leads the team in rebounding, assists and steals. He does it all, and when he's on his game, the Terrapins are very tough to beat.

Maryland will also turn to junior Landon Milbourne for added production. He's second on the team in scoring, and leads the team in offensive rebounding and blocks.

Where the Terps struggle is shooting the ball. They're 11th in the conference in effective FG percentage at 46.4%, and is one of the weaker teams from the perimeter, shooting only 32%. Compounding matters, they don't get to the line nearly enough. Their FTR% is 325th nationally at 29.3%, but they're in the top 10 in free throw percentage, 76.6%. In short, they're leaving a lot of points on the table by not getting to the line more.

This is a huge game for the Pack. State's favored by four at home, and has played well of late in the confines of the RBC Center. However, there's more riding on this game, and the BC game, than in previous contests. If the Pack can hold serve at home they would secure a 7-9 finish and have a good look at that .500 finish heading into the ACC tourney. Lose tonight, and it may kickstart a swoon that will all but negate the positive momentum the Pack has built over the last few weeks.

View the complete entry of "A look at Maryland"

Wake 85, State 78

Stats by StatSheet.com

Stats by StatSheet.com

Twenty-eight and 18 -- James Johnson accounted for a third of Wake's points and nearly half of their rebounds. He was a one-man wrecking crew that State had no answer for.

(Continues)

And yet, State was never out of this game until the final moments. It looked bleak at one point in the first half when Wake jumped out to a 15-point lead, but the Pack kept battling and cut the halftime margin to eight. Two quick buckets to start the second half cut the lead to four right out of the gate, and you knew from that point forward it was going to be a game the entire way home.

State did a tremendous job valuing the ball this game, committing only eight turnovers. There have been times this year when State hit the eight TO mark before the midway point of the first half. Excellent, excellent work from the Pack in that regard.

But when Sidney closes a door, the rest of the team opens a window, it seems. Turnovers in check, the Pack just could not gain any sort of traction in the rebounding or free throw rate arenas. The Deacs out-rebounded the Pack by 15 (42-27) and doubled the Pack's number of trips to the line, 22 to 11 (granted, a good number of Wake's attempts came at the end in the Pack's attempt to get back in the game).

Beyond Johnson's heroics for the Deacs, Ish Smith drove two daggers into State's bid for an upset late in the game. With just over six minutes to go and the Pack down by six, State looked like it was going to hold the Deacs to an empty possession before Smith drained a fall-away three at the end of the shot clock to push the lead back to nine. And with the Pack down only five with only a minute remaining, Smith drove the lane and dished an alley-oop dunk to Johnson. Two huge momentum-sustaining plays in the face of the Pack's relentless attack to get back in the game.

State was led by Tracy Smith's 18 and kept alive later in the game by Farnold Degand's drives to the bucket that netted him 12 points on the night, but there was little else to write home about from the rest of the squad. Fells, consumed with keeping Jeff Teague in check -- just 12 points tonight on 3 of 2 shooting -- could never get going on the offensive end of the floor, finishing with eight. Brandon Costner finished with 10, and Ben McCauley shot the ball well from the floor (6 of 9) but missed his only foul shot to finish with 12 points. A total of 30 points from the leadership core of the team isn't going to get it done against a top-15 team on their court.

In one sense, this was a winnable game, and it was there for the taking if the Pack could've rebounded better and converted some close looks at the basket. On the other hand, given where this team is at on its growth arc, there's not much shame to be had losing by seven to a team in their house that gave Duke everything they could handle in Cameron. Sidney played the percentages, banking on Wake faltering if Teague were once again (relatively) neutralized, but Wake -- Johnson and Smith, in particular -- responded this time around to the challenge. A tip of the hat to them.

Now the challenge becomes winning two winnable games at home with a 7-9, or even 8-8, conference record still possible.

View the complete entry of "Wake 85, State 78"

A look at Wake Forest, again

Stats by StatSheet.com

Rank and Records	NCST		WAKE
RPI	#90		#17
Strength of Schedule	#87		#55
Overall	15-10		20-5
Conference	5-7		7-5
Home	13-3		12-1
Away	2-7		5-4
Top 25	1-5		4-1
RPI Top 50	2-7		5-2

They say revenge is a dish best served cold. Tonight, Wake will be looking to serve up a big ol' plate of it for the Wolfpack in Winston-Salem.

(Continues)

It's been rough sledding of late for the Deacs. After starting the season perfect en route to a #1 ranking, the Deacs have since lost five of their last nine, including their most recent loss, a 101-91 loss to the Blue Devils in Cameron.

The Deacs have faltered from their defensive prowess a bit lately. At the beginning of the year they were shutting everyone down like it was nothing. Good offensive teams looked horrid against them. Lately, though, their dominant defense has struggled for consistency, and it's showed in the W/L column.

Speaking of defense, the Pack used a variety of them in the win earlier in the season. It's tough to think of a defensive set they didn't use. Sidney cracked upon the Jimmy V playbook a bit and threw some unusual schemes that did exactly what they were supposed to: force a young team to slow down on offense and think. Thinking -- instead of attacking instinctively -- is poison to an explosive offense like Wake's.

It worked then, but they'll be ready for it now. So the challenge becomes figuring out a way to pull the same trick on the same team twice. Fool me once, shame on you...fool me twice, uh, you can fool me but we won't get fooled again, or something like that.

Regardless of what Wake does on offense this time around, the Pack's keys to success will likely fall where they did in the last meeting: offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line as much as possible. If State can snag some boards on the offensive end and get some second-chance points, as well as some free points at the line, the Pack will go a long way in helping the chances of pulling off the road upset.

The Deacs may be ripe for one after the emotional loss on the road, but with revenge on their minds, I doubt the Deacs will be either looking back or looking past the Pack.

Tip is at 8:00 on the Raycom network.

View the complete entry of "A look at Wake Forest, again"

CollegeHoopsNet.com: State ACC's "Worst Nightmare" To Bubble Teams

From CollegeHoopsNet.com, State represents the ACC's best chance among teams unlikely to make the NCAA tourney to run the table in their conference's tournament, thus robbing an at-large bid from a bubble team:

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ACC
North Carolina State: With five teams looking like locks to go to the Dance, and four teams on the bubble, North Carolina State certainly looks like the best of the rest. The Wolfpack have knocked off Wake Forest and Miami (Fl.) in conference play this season, and played some other teams very close. Brandon Costner is difficult to defend and Ben McCauley has bounced back after a down year. Courtney Fells is the most potent scorer in the backcourt. NC State can shoot the ball, both inside and outside the arc, and it also offensive rebounds at a high rate. They also slow the pace of the game down and force teams into tough shots.

Now granted, this doesn't really mean a whole lot. It's basically saying out of the group of three teams at the absolute bottom of the league--State, Virginia and Georgia Tech--we have the best chance to win four games in four days. I also have a better chance of blocking a dunk from Shaquille O'Neal than do either Verne Troyer or Danny Devito.

So I don't expect you to get too amped up by this. But I think it's a bit ambitious to think that there are four bubble teams from the ACC at this point. There's no way Virginia Tech finishes above .500 in the league at 6-6 with Clemson, Duke, Carolina and FSU remaining, and the best Miami can do is finish at 8-8 with only one decent OOC win (Kentucky).

So adding Virginia Tech and Miami to the pile of need-to-win-the-tourney-to-get-in teams, I think it makes it a bit tougher to make that same argument. McClinton can keep you in any game and if he gets Randolph Childress hot for four games, Miami can win it. Virginia Tech is dangerous, but I think State would stand a better chance to go all the way than the Hokies who always seem to struggle in the ACC tournament.

View the complete entry of "CollegeHoopsNet.com: State ACC's "Worst Nightmare" To Bubble Teams"

The Stretch Run

Just four games remain in the 2008-09 regular season. The older I get, the faster these seasons come and go.

I can't imagine how fast the seasons will fly by once I hit 45 or 50. No wonder our graybeards talk about the titles of '74 and '83 as though they happened just yesteryear. I'm sure it feels that way to them, just as 1996 seems like just a few years ago to me.

Nevertheless, there's the slate ahead. You can see what Ken Pomeroy's computers tell us will happen. It's a relatively safe prediction of 7-9, and one that -- had you offered it to State fans the day after the loss to VT that put State at 2-6 in-conference -- I'm sure most would have taken.

If we assume KenPom's predictions all hold true -- which they won't, but let's assume they do -- then here are your final regular season standings:

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Rank	Team	Conference Record
1	UNC	13-3
2	Wake	11-5
3	Clemson	11-5
4	Duke	11-5
5	BC	9-7
6	FSU	9-7
7	Miami	8-8
8	NC State	7-9
9	Va Tech	6-10
10	Maryland	6-10
11	UVa	4-12
12	GT	2-14

If this plays out as predicted, the Virginia Tech loss still hurts but not as much as perhaps some folks felt initially. It would have State at an 8-8 finish, tied for the 7th position in the conference with Miami, a five-spot improvement from last season's debacle.

In terms of the ACC tournament, though, the impact would not be felt. According to the ACC's tiebreaker policy (if I've deciphered it properly), State would have an identical W/L record against UNC, the same number of wins (one) but one more loss against the tied teams in second place (Wake, Clemson, Duke) and therefore be seeded 8th at the ACC tournament regardless.

Again, this all assumes that Ken's predictions all play out as his computers project.

Looking ahead, let's look at some best case/worse case scenarios for the Pack based on these predictions:

Absolute Best Case Scenario: We win out, of course. Doing so would put us at 9-7 in a three-way tie for 5th with BC and FSU, with both schools holding the tiebreaker over us in tourney seeding (BC's win against UNC earns them the nod over us in our tie). It would take a near miracle for this to occur -- Maryland and Boston College at home are loseable games, but defeating both Miami AND Wake Forest on the road is asking a lot of the basketball gods. It can be done, but only if all the pieces fall the right way (turnovers and rebounding numbers would have to improve dramatically). Chance of Success = 1 in 10

Highly Optimistic Scenario: Win three of four to finish 8-8. Win both home games against Maryland and Boston College, and steal one on the road, most likely at Miami. An 8-8 finish with a win over the 'Canes would put the Pack in sole possession of 7th place in the league. Chance of Success = 1 in 3

More Realistic But Given Our Track Record Still Cautiously Optimistic Scenario: Win the home games and lose the road games to finish 7-9 and in sole possession of 8th place in the league. Miami is going to be a really tough out in Jack McClinton's final game at Miami. He'll be so fired up that he'll be making them from the gigantic U. Chance of Success = 2 of 3

Pretty Darn Pessemistic Scenario: State loses three of their final four games. Either Tyrese Rice or Greivis Vasquez explode like they've shown they can do and/or State turns it over 50% of their possessions to lose both of their road games and one of the final two at home. A 6-10 finish would put the Pack either tied with Maryland for 10th (with a loss to BC) or in sole possession of 10th (with a loss to Maryland). Either way, not good. Chance of Failure = 1 in 3

Holy Hell The World Is Crashing Down Around Us, But Hey, We're State, This Is Just What Happens To Us Scenario: State loses all four games in an epic collapse not seen since, well, last year. Both Rice AND Vasquez go off and State never gets the ball past midcourt. State would finish 5-11, just one game ahead of Virginia in 10th place, and the ward drums would start to pound pretty loudly. Chance of The Apocolypse = 1 in 10

I can live with 7-9. I'd love 8-8. To finish 9-7 is asking too much, even for this dyed-in-the-wool fan.

But 6-10 or 5-11 finishes would be major disappointments and put a very sour taste in everyone's mouths at the end of the season, for the second year in a row.

View the complete entry of "The Stretch Run"

State 72, UVa 67

Stats by StatSheet.com

Stats by StatSheet.com

AP recap

The high points:

• State's underclassmen stepped up huge, particularly C.J. Williams and Dennis Horner, who finished with 16 and 12 points, respectively. Williams was particularly efficient, scoring his 16 in just 17 minutes of action.
  
  
• Courtney Fells was clutch at the end, sinking four key FTs and executing the end-of-game fouling strategy to perfection.
  
  
• The Pack played well defensively and offensively at times, jumping out to 18 and 17-point leads twice in the game.
  
  
• Virginia's primary weapon, Sylven Landesberg, was held relatively in check. He finished the game with 16--two below his average--on four of 14 shooting (28%).

The low points:

• The Pack gave back both leads at the end of both halves. The Cavaliers cut the first half margin down to two right before Degand's half-ending drive and bucket. They also erased the Pack's 17-point lead down to three before Fells iced the game at the line. Different game, same story.
  
  
• Javier Gonzalez finished the game with zero assists and seven turnovers. (He was perfect from the field, however. 4-4.)
  
  
• State once again was out-rebounded and turned over more by an opponent.

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Hey, a win is a win. Virginia came in red-hot after wins against Clemson and Virginia Tech and showed plenty of fight. Most teams, when down nearly 20, usually pack it in when on the road. That they didn't is a testament to the improvement of the Hoos this year.

It's also indicative of State's M.O. this year. Get up big and coast. I'm not sure what the root of it all is, or what Sid can say (or should not be saying) to right this trend. I can't fathom that Sid is purposefully "taking the air out of the ball," but the net effect is the same. There's something in this team that, when standing at the crossroads of a double-digit lead, refuses to go down the path of increasing said lead and instead meanders down the road of "Hey, let's make this thing close!"

There's a lot of ballyhoo on the monkey message boards about Sidney's end-of-game fouling strategy. I'll be honest, I've neither coached nor played organized ball long enough to know what the percentages are in that situation. It worked out this time, but the meltdown that would've occurred had it blown up in Sid's face--on top of surrendering the huge second-half lead--would've been epic in proportion. I'm inclined the agree with this line of thinking, from the post-game thread:

I really liked the second foul with 3.7 seconds. Excellent strategy.

But, the first foul was waaaaay tooooo early. Too many bad things can happen. Cannot inbounds the ball. Turn it over on the inbounds. Miss the free throws and allow the other team with win with a two or a three. Just too much can go wrong with that much time to play.

But, with 3.7 .... that's a great time to do it.........

It's an interesting strategy, for sure, and something taken straight from the V playbook.

On to Wake Forest in Winston-Salem.

View the complete entry of "State 72, UVa 67"