A look at Georgia Tech, again

Stats by StatSheet.com

Rank and Records	NCST		GT
RPI	#101		#156
Strength of Schedule	#82		#72
Overall	13-9		10-13
Conference	3-6		1-9
Home	12-3		8-6
Away	1-6		2-7
Top 25	1-4		1-2
RPI Top 50	2-8		1-5

Recap from the game in Raleigh.

It took Lowe-vertime to seal the deal in Raleigh back in January, but the Pack notched its first ACC victory of the year by staging a late-game rally to get to the bonus period.

Looking at the Four Factors chart above, you can see a Tech team that continues to slide further and further into their own muck. Effective FG percentage has been on a steady two-month decline, as have the offensive rebounding and free throw rates. That, along with an increasing turnover percentage, is just not how you conclude your season.

Without diverting too far from the game preview, it just seems tough to see how Hewitt will keep his employment up after next season. Derrick Favors has bought him one more year, but he'll be gone soon enough and I can't fathom that his presence will improve the Jackets enough to provide a secondary-recruiting bump large enough to further extend Hewitt's employment. Anything's possible, but as we saw how interjecting a star one-and-done-er can sometimes go wrong, the odds are stacked against Hewitt in 2010.

But that's neither here nor there with regards to Saturday's game.

It's this week's version of The Biggest Game Of The Season. The win against Wake Forest on Wednesday (that 10 years from now 35,000 people will claim to have witnessed in person) was a huge shot in the arm for a team looking to bounce back against a horrible loss against Virginia Tech on Sunday. Had State lost against Wake, the Georgia Tech game would be largely inconsequential, and outside of some pockets of extreme optimism, it still only matters in the sense that we could play ourselves into a better ACC Tournament seed and avoid missing out on the Big 10/ACC Challenge Beatdown.*

This game is also huge from a team growth standpoint because it's a conference road game against team State should beat. The Pack seems to have little difficulty getting up for big games at home, but sealing the deal on the road is another matter. It's also an opportunity to avoid playing down to an opponent. If the Pack can get on the gas, stay on it and KEEP on it for 40 minutes, the mental rewards for this team would be immense.

But the very reason State stands to gain so much is the very reason I'm worried. When the chips have been down with something to LOSE, not GAIN (as they were in the Wake game), the Pack has struggled.

The usual areas of concern apply: turnovers, rebounding, guard play, 40 minutes of solid basketball. The record's been skipping so long now that there are divots in the wax. Atlanta's a tough place to play, and this will be State's most challenging -- but potentially most rewarding -- game of the year.

*Thanks to Mike and Zac for keeping this sloppy writer in check.
(Continues)

View the complete entry of "A look at Georgia Tech, again"

A look at Wake Forest

Stats by StatSheet.com

Steven's preview at Section Six.

Conventional wisdom says we don't have a chance in hell tonight. I'm of a different opinion, for a couple of reasons:

(Continues)

1. Wake Forest is a different team on the road than they are at home. Conversely, State is a better team at home than on the road. Wake's youth seems to struggle when away from their home fans, and the home crowd at the RBC Center tonight -- despite the debacle in Blacksburg on Sunday -- should be full and into it early.
   
   
2. Wake Forest, I think again due to their youth, does not respond well to close games late. Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Miami all were within two points or leading at halftime before scoring a win. Wake will want to put State away early. State, on the other hand, has shown an uncanny ability to post leads against quality opponents -- sometimes HUGE leads -- before struggling down the stretch. If the Pack gets up big on Wake Forest, Jeff Teague may start pressing to do too much and get out of their gameplan. The X factor is whether State, if it has a lead, can keep it.

I'm more optimistic than most heading into this game. I was there in 2004 when we beat a Wake Forest team featuring Chris Paul, Eric Williams and Justin Gray ranked 16th in the country. It can be done.

The bigger question is how will the team respond to the Virginia Tech loss. That game felt eerily similar to the game against Maryland years ago when Damon Thornton, whistled for a technical, led to an epic collapse in College Park that carried over to the remainder of the season. Can State shake the funk from that OT loss? Tonight will tell us a lot.

View the complete entry of "A look at Wake Forest"

A look at Virginia Tech

Stats by StatSheet.com

For some unknown reason in the cosmos, there are certain schools that State either matches up well against or seems to struggle with. Georgia Tech football seems to be a team the Pack always, always struggles with. The same with Maryland in football.

One team that State has matched up with on the hardwood in recent years is the Virginia Tech Hokies. The Pack currently holds a six-game winning streak against Virginia Tech, including three wins last year. In fact, State has only lost to the Hokies once since they joined the ACC, their first meeting as conference foes.

(Continues)

There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason why the Pack -- even in down years -- matches up well the the Hokies. In 2006-07, State laid an absolute arse whoopin' on them in the RBC Center, shooting an insane 66.7% from the floor, including 73.3% from three-point range. It was one of the most dominant performances a Wolfpack team has ever put forth in recent memory.

If the trend is to continue this year, it will take some of that harmonious, offensive-stars-aligning mojo in heavy doses. The Hokies are once again a solid program, ranked 40th in the RPI and capable of beating any team in the country as their win over #1 Wake Forest proved.

They enter the game on a two-game losing streak, however, dropping close games to Clemson at home and a road game against Boston College.

Their two big weapons are A.D. Vassallo and Malcom Delany, who account for the vast bulk of their scoring. Vassallo is a big man who can shoot well from the perimeter, so he could pose some matchup problems for the Pack. And, of course, Delany will challenge our guards offensively and defensively.

So the Hokies have a chance to snap two streaks -- a two-gamer and a six-gamer. We'll see if history continues to favor the Pack and keep them going.

View the complete entry of "A look at Virginia Tech"

A look at NC Central; or, Let's just this over with

Out of 344 Division 1 teams, KenPom.com has them rated dead last.

Stats by StatSheet.com

Look...I hate being the guy to say things like "Games like this are beneath us," and "There's no good reason for us to waste our time playing a team like this," but games like this are beneath us and there's no good reason to waste our time playing a team like this.

(Continues)

I hate saying stuff like that because it sounds eerily like the sorts of things that get spewed from our blue brethren to the west. But when it comes to basketball, teams literally don't get any worse than the Central Eagles. There's not much State could gain from playing this game, other than to let Kaycee Obi-Gwacham throw down a windmill or whatnot.

I would say this would be the perfect opportunity to let Javi Gonzalez see some major minutes, but last night Coach Sidney Lowe hinted that there are things other than his health and practice habits keeping him off the court. So don't look for him to play any/much, either.

I suppose Johnny Thomas could get some major minutes for conditioning sake. Perhaps Dennis Horner can work on his interior or perimeter game some (both could use improvement). But beyond that, I really don't see how this will be an entertaining game beyond the 15:00 mark of the first half.

If you're looking for scoring from the Eagles, look for it from freshman guard Jamar Briscoe. His points-per-game average has been steadily trending upward, and he now averages 16.2 points per game to lead the Eagles.

Get in, get a win, get out with no injuries.

View the complete entry of "A look at NC Central; or, Let's just this over with"

SI's Seth Davis Either High or Suffering From Major Head Wound

...'Cause homeboy has us winning tomorrow:

Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

No. 5 North Carolina (18-2) at NC State (11-7)

When 7-foot freshman forward Tyler Zeller broke his wrist in North Carolina's second game of the season against Kentucky, not many people paid attention. After all, Zeller was just a beanpole freshman who was going to be a minor cog in a well-oiled, invincible machine. Well, now that it looks like senior forward Marcus Ginyard might not play at all this season, Zeller's absence is a little more pronounced because it has left Roy Williams with basically a six-and-a-half-man rotation. Freshman Ed Davis was the only reserve who played double-digit minutes during Wednesday's great escape at Florida State, and he probably wouldn't have played nearly as much if Tyler Hansbrough hadn't gotten into foul trouble. The reality is, North Carolina knows it will be a high seed in the NCAA tournament, so it's not surprising it would be in a tough game on the road against an inspired yet inferior opponent like Florida State. They will be in the same situation Saturday against a North Carolina State team that will be very mindful that a win over the Tar Heels could make their season. Wolfpack guard Julius Mays's buzzer-beater to beat Miami in overtime Tuesday broke a lousy stretch during which the Wolfpack lost five out of six. You know I love desperate home teams, and considering this may be N.C. State's last chance to put itself in position to make the NCAA tournament, I'll take them to pull off the upset.

N.C. State 74, North Carolina 71

I know private school nerds score good weed, but man...even I think that's reaching a bit.

I may not agree with his assessment, but I sure hope he's right!

View the complete entry of "SI's Seth Davis Either High or Suffering From Major Head Wound"