Showing posts with label wake forest. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wake forest. Show all posts

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Wake 85, State 78


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Twenty-eight and 18 -- James Johnson accounted for a third of Wake's points and nearly half of their rebounds. He was a one-man wrecking crew that State had no answer for.

(Continues)

And yet, State was never out of this game until the final moments. It looked bleak at one point in the first half when Wake jumped out to a 15-point lead, but the Pack kept battling and cut the halftime margin to eight. Two quick buckets to start the second half cut the lead to four right out of the gate, and you knew from that point forward it was going to be a game the entire way home.

State did a tremendous job valuing the ball this game, committing only eight turnovers. There have been times this year when State hit the eight TO mark before the midway point of the first half. Excellent, excellent work from the Pack in that regard.

But when Sidney closes a door, the rest of the team opens a window, it seems. Turnovers in check, the Pack just could not gain any sort of traction in the rebounding or free throw rate arenas. The Deacs out-rebounded the Pack by 15 (42-27) and doubled the Pack's number of trips to the line, 22 to 11 (granted, a good number of Wake's attempts came at the end in the Pack's attempt to get back in the game).

Beyond Johnson's heroics for the Deacs, Ish Smith drove two daggers into State's bid for an upset late in the game. With just over six minutes to go and the Pack down by six, State looked like it was going to hold the Deacs to an empty possession before Smith drained a fall-away three at the end of the shot clock to push the lead back to nine. And with the Pack down only five with only a minute remaining, Smith drove the lane and dished an alley-oop dunk to Johnson. Two huge momentum-sustaining plays in the face of the Pack's relentless attack to get back in the game.

State was led by Tracy Smith's 18 and kept alive later in the game by Farnold Degand's drives to the bucket that netted him 12 points on the night, but there was little else to write home about from the rest of the squad. Fells, consumed with keeping Jeff Teague in check -- just 12 points tonight on 3 of 2 shooting -- could never get going on the offensive end of the floor, finishing with eight. Brandon Costner finished with 10, and Ben McCauley shot the ball well from the floor (6 of 9) but missed his only foul shot to finish with 12 points. A total of 30 points from the leadership core of the team isn't going to get it done against a top-15 team on their court.

In one sense, this was a winnable game, and it was there for the taking if the Pack could've rebounded better and converted some close looks at the basket. On the other hand, given where this team is at on its growth arc, there's not much shame to be had losing by seven to a team in their house that gave Duke everything they could handle in Cameron. Sidney played the percentages, banking on Wake faltering if Teague were once again (relatively) neutralized, but Wake -- Johnson and Smith, in particular -- responded this time around to the challenge. A tip of the hat to them.

Now the challenge becomes winning two winnable games at home with a 7-9, or even 8-8, conference record still possible.


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A look at Wake Forest, again


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Rank and Records NCST
WAKE
RPI#90
#17
Strength of Schedule#87
#55
Overall15-10
20-5
Conference5-7
7-5
Home13-3
12-1
Away2-7
5-4
Top 251-5
4-1
RPI Top 502-7
5-2


They say revenge is a dish best served cold. Tonight, Wake will be looking to serve up a big ol' plate of it for the Wolfpack in Winston-Salem.

(Continues)

It's been rough sledding of late for the Deacs. After starting the season perfect en route to a #1 ranking, the Deacs have since lost five of their last nine, including their most recent loss, a 101-91 loss to the Blue Devils in Cameron.

The Deacs have faltered from their defensive prowess a bit lately. At the beginning of the year they were shutting everyone down like it was nothing. Good offensive teams looked horrid against them. Lately, though, their dominant defense has struggled for consistency, and it's showed in the W/L column.

Speaking of defense, the Pack used a variety of them in the win earlier in the season. It's tough to think of a defensive set they didn't use. Sidney cracked upon the Jimmy V playbook a bit and threw some unusual schemes that did exactly what they were supposed to: force a young team to slow down on offense and think. Thinking -- instead of attacking instinctively -- is poison to an explosive offense like Wake's.

It worked then, but they'll be ready for it now. So the challenge becomes figuring out a way to pull the same trick on the same team twice. Fool me once, shame on you...fool me twice, uh, you can fool me but we won't get fooled again, or something like that.

Regardless of what Wake does on offense this time around, the Pack's keys to success will likely fall where they did in the last meeting: offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line as much as possible. If State can snag some boards on the offensive end and get some second-chance points, as well as some free points at the line, the Pack will go a long way in helping the chances of pulling off the road upset.

The Deacs may be ripe for one after the emotional loss on the road, but with revenge on their minds, I doubt the Deacs will be either looking back or looking past the Pack.

Tip is at 8:00 on the Raycom network.


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Wednesday, February 25, 2009

The Stretch Run


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Just four games remain in the 2008-09 regular season. The older I get, the faster these seasons come and go.

I can't imagine how fast the seasons will fly by once I hit 45 or 50. No wonder our graybeards talk about the titles of '74 and '83 as though they happened just yesteryear. I'm sure it feels that way to them, just as 1996 seems like just a few years ago to me.

Nevertheless, there's the slate ahead. You can see what Ken Pomeroy's computers tell us will happen. It's a relatively safe prediction of 7-9, and one that -- had you offered it to State fans the day after the loss to VT that put State at 2-6 in-conference -- I'm sure most would have taken.

If we assume KenPom's predictions all hold true -- which they won't, but let's assume they do -- then here are your final regular season standings:

(Continues)

Rank
TeamConference Record
1 UNC
13-3
2 Wake11-5
3
Clemson
11-5
4
Duke11-5
5
BC
9-7
6
FSU
9-7
7
Miami8-8
8
NC State
7-9
9
Va Tech
6-10
10
Maryland6-10
11
UVa
4-12
12
GT
2-14

If this plays out as predicted, the Virginia Tech loss still hurts but not as much as perhaps some folks felt initially. It would have State at an 8-8 finish, tied for the 7th position in the conference with Miami, a five-spot improvement from last season's debacle.

In terms of the ACC tournament, though, the impact would not be felt. According to the ACC's tiebreaker policy (if I've deciphered it properly), State would have an identical W/L record against UNC, the same number of wins (one) but one more loss against the tied teams in second place (Wake, Clemson, Duke) and therefore be seeded 8th at the ACC tournament regardless.

Again, this all assumes that Ken's predictions all play out as his computers project.

Looking ahead, let's look at some best case/worse case scenarios for the Pack based on these predictions:

Absolute Best Case Scenario: We win out, of course. Doing so would put us at 9-7 in a three-way tie for 5th with BC and FSU, with both schools holding the tiebreaker over us in tourney seeding (BC's win against UNC earns them the nod over us in our tie). It would take a near miracle for this to occur -- Maryland and Boston College at home are loseable games, but defeating both Miami AND Wake Forest on the road is asking a lot of the basketball gods. It can be done, but only if all the pieces fall the right way (turnovers and rebounding numbers would have to improve dramatically). Chance of Success = 1 in 10

Highly Optimistic Scenario: Win three of four to finish 8-8. Win both home games against Maryland and Boston College, and steal one on the road, most likely at Miami. An 8-8 finish with a win over the 'Canes would put the Pack in sole possession of 7th place in the league. Chance of Success = 1 in 3

More Realistic But Given Our Track Record Still Cautiously Optimistic Scenario: Win the home games and lose the road games to finish 7-9 and in sole possession of 8th place in the league. Miami is going to be a really tough out in Jack McClinton's final game at Miami. He'll be so fired up that he'll be making them from the gigantic U. Chance of Success = 2 of 3

Pretty Darn Pessemistic Scenario: State loses three of their final four games. Either Tyrese Rice or Greivis Vasquez explode like they've shown they can do and/or State turns it over 50% of their possessions to lose both of their road games and one of the final two at home. A 6-10 finish would put the Pack either tied with Maryland for 10th (with a loss to BC) or in sole possession of 10th (with a loss to Maryland). Either way, not good. Chance of Failure = 1 in 3

Holy Hell The World Is Crashing Down Around Us, But Hey, We're State, This Is Just What Happens To Us Scenario: State loses all four games in an epic collapse not seen since, well, last year. Both Rice AND Vasquez go off and State never gets the ball past midcourt. State would finish 5-11, just one game ahead of Virginia in 10th place, and the ward drums would start to pound pretty loudly. Chance of The Apocolypse = 1 in 10

I can live with 7-9. I'd love 8-8. To finish 9-7 is asking too much, even for this dyed-in-the-wool fan.

But 6-10 or 5-11 finishes would be major disappointments and put a very sour taste in everyone's mouths at the end of the season, for the second year in a row.


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Wednesday, February 11, 2009

State upends Wake, 82-76


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Apparently, all the Pack needs is a little privacy.

With virtually no one watching except for some desperate folks on ACC Select, and parts of the Triangle subjected to static-laden 99.9 radio coverage on account of a telethon on the Pack's usual radio station, the Pack finally -- FINALLY -- nailed down a win in which they held a lead.

(Continues)

Now, I'm not one to gloat and say I told you so, but in the game preview yesterday I stated two reasons why I thought State had a chance: Wake's tendency to fold when challenged and their struggles away from home. Both came to fruition last night.

Sidney Lowe, for all the questions folks may have about his team management, knows his damn Xs and Os. Against a youthful Wake team, he threw everything in his defensive playbook to keep the Deacs off-balanced, including a healthy dose of Box-and-1 on Jeff Teague. Teague -- averaging nearly 21 points/game -- was blanketed by Courtney Fells and could only get off three shot attempts the whole game. He finished with 11 points -- 10 below his average -- with six of his points coming from the line.

With Teague neutralized and Al Fariq Aminu fouled out at the 12:00 mark in the second half, the Deacs fell behind by as much as 20 in the second half.

But as is State's M.O., they handed back nearly every bit from that point forth until the end of the game. Silly turnovers, lazy passing and a desire to sit on the lead instead of continuing to play the game aggressively all contributed to the evaporation of the lead. It seemed like Sunday afternoon all over again.

State found a leader when they needed it in this game, however, in Brandon Coster. He played like a man possessed in the final moments, scoring big buckets to slow the bleeding enough to finally let the Pack savor a big time win in a game they'd dominated at one point. Costner's 23 points led the team.

This was just what the doctor ordered heading into the second Georgia Tech game of the year. Win that one, and who knows. We've seen State get hot at times under coach Lowe. A repeat of the 2006-07 late February/early March would be a welcome site for thousands of sore eyes.


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The Greatest Game Never Seen


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...except for the 17,000 or so of us lucky folks there to witness it in person.


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A look at Wake Forest


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Steven's preview at Section Six.

Conventional wisdom says we don't have a chance in hell tonight. I'm of a different opinion, for a couple of reasons:

(Continues)

  1. Wake Forest is a different team on the road than they are at home. Conversely, State is a better team at home than on the road. Wake's youth seems to struggle when away from their home fans, and the home crowd at the RBC Center tonight -- despite the debacle in Blacksburg on Sunday -- should be full and into it early.

  2. Wake Forest, I think again due to their youth, does not respond well to close games late. Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Miami all were within two points or leading at halftime before scoring a win. Wake will want to put State away early. State, on the other hand, has shown an uncanny ability to post leads against quality opponents -- sometimes HUGE leads -- before struggling down the stretch. If the Pack gets up big on Wake Forest, Jeff Teague may start pressing to do too much and get out of their gameplan. The X factor is whether State, if it has a lead, can keep it.


I'm more optimistic than most heading into this game. I was there in 2004 when we beat a Wake Forest team featuring Chris Paul, Eric Williams and Justin Gray ranked 16th in the country. It can be done.

The bigger question is how will the team respond to the Virginia Tech loss. That game felt eerily similar to the game against Maryland years ago when Damon Thornton, whistled for a technical, led to an epic collapse in College Park that carried over to the remainder of the season. Can State shake the funk from that OT loss? Tonight will tell us a lot.


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Tuesday, November 18, 2008

State beats Wake 21-17; sets up HUGE rivalry game with UNC this weekend


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It's been a busy weekend and start to the week for me, so I'll pass on recaps of the Wake game as I'm sure you've no doubt digested plenty of postgame pontification already.

I will say this about the game; this was the first game I was fortunate enough to attend this year. I thought the crowd (late arriving as seems to be par for the course these days) did a good job staying in it despite the weather, especially at the end when the Pack needed some big stops. And you fools in Section 10 are crazy.

Losing Shea McKeen is a blow and I think the Pack will feel his absence against the Heels. They have a very talented offensive line and if T.J. Yates is indeed back to playing QB for this game, getting as much pass rush on him as possible will be key. I hope we don't see our ends slow up at the end of the game due to fatigue.

Despite Carolina's three losses, they still have an outside chance at making the title game if some pieces fall their way. A loss to State would kill any last hopes they had, so State has a golden opportunity to play spoiler this weekend again just as they did against Wake.

Russel Wilson continues to dazzle. The oft-mocked Heather Dinich ran a piece about Wilson as perhaps the best QB in the league prior to the Wake Forest game. After the win, she looks vindicated in her assertion.

I should have plenty more content forthcoming in the week leading up to the Carolina game. I hope to have another Q&A after two botched runs at Duke and Wake Forest bloggers...though on second though, given we won both games, I should rethink my position...


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Monday, November 10, 2008

A look at the Wake game, relatively speaking


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We're going to take another look at the relativity stats this week heading into the Wake game. For more explanation about these stats and what they mean, see last week's entry for the Duke game.

State Offense Versus Wake Defense:

State
RankWake
RankDelta
Rushing Offense
105Rushing Defense
29-76
Passing Offense
77Pass Defense
56-21
Total Offense
105Total Defense
31-74
Passing Efficiency
91Pass Efficiency Defense
31-60
Scoring Offense
97Scoring Defense
20-77

Average Delta in favor of Wake when we have the ball: 61.6. Relative to the rest of all Div. 1A programs, they are 51.8% (61.6/119) better defensively than State offensively.


State Defense Versus Wake Offense:

State
RankWake
RankDelta
Rushing Defense81Rushing Offense9817
Pass Defense101Passing Offense80-21
Total Defense99Total Offense1034
Pass Efficiency Defense85Passing Efficiency61-24
Scoring Defense87Scoring Offense958

Average Delta in favor of Wake when they have the ball: 2.7. Relative to the rest of all Div. 1A programs, they are 2.2% (2.7/119) better offensively than State is defensively.

(Continues)

Right away you can see that Wake's strength this season is their defense. Their offense, typically strong under Grobe, has really been lacking in production this year, especially their running game. That's a great sign for State fans, as that plays to the strength of the Pack defense.

Wake's passing game is stronger than their running attack but it's still not a world-beating unit, 80th and 61st in yardage and passing efficiency, respectively. When compared to the Pack's pass defense, though, they still stand apart in the rankings with a better than 20-spot advantage in both categories.

The good news is that as previously injured Pack players continue to work themselves back into playing shape, the effectiveness of the Pack pass defense should improve.

The question will be can State's offense, that looked so good in the first half against Duke, have similar success against a very stout Wake defense. The disparity in the rankings seem to suggest no, but the one chink in the Deacon armor may be their pass defense. And with Russell Wilson continuing to improve each week passing the football, State may have opportunities passing the ball downfield.


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