State 74, BC 69

NCAA Basketball Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

The Pack puts the clamp down on Tyrese Rice in the second half, holding him to just 14 points, and Ben McCauley goes out in style on senior night to help the Pack score a big victory at home in their final home game of the season.

Rice in fact hit his final bucket with 15:35 left on the clock. Javi Gonzalez stepped his defensive intensity up in the second half on Rice and kept him from hurting the Pack from the field.

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Gonzalez had some big plays on the offensive end, as well. He hit a big breakaway bucket late in the game, flipping the ball over the BC defender and into the basket in a shot even Rice would be proud of. He tracked down a huge offensive rebound off a McCauley miss late in the game, as well, helping to seal the deal. Overall, Gonzo finished with six assists against only one turnover -- the kind of play you need in order to succeed in the ACC.

Rebounding and turnovers were big factors tonight. Boston College is a tremendous offensive rebounding team but State beat the Eagles on the glass at both ends of the court, pulling down nine offensive boards to their seven and beat them 20 to 16 on the defensive glass. The Pack controlled the ball well when they had it, only turning the ball over nine times. Both elements combined to limit the Pack's empty possessions, and when the Pack values the basketball, they've shown they can be a very efficient team offensively.

McCauley had a huge game in his final game at the RBC Center. The senior from West Newton, PA, scored 20 points to go with six boards, had two assists, one block and brought a lot of much-needed emotion to a team that could've folded after the tough loss to Maryland Sunday. He hit the final two free throws that sealed the game, holding the release on his last one an extra second just to savor the moment.

For the other senior on the court, Courtney Fells, the news was not as good. He succumbed to a groin injury late in the first half that sideline him the rest of the game. The tragedy of it all was that he was playing so well, having scored 11 points on 3-of-3 shooting from three and four of six overall, with his parents from Mississippi in attendance. He was on his way to a great finish, and now has to wonder if his career is over, depending upon how severe the groin injury turns out to be.

Big win tonight. It gives the Pack energy and momentum heading into the Miami game, who will be reeling after a home loss themselves in their final home game of the year. State will hope to pull off on Saturday what BC could not do tonight.

View the complete entry of "State 74, BC 69"

A look at BC, again

NCAA Basketball Stats

Rank and Records	BC		NCST
RPI	#49		#102
Strength of Schedule	#45		#74
Overall	20-9		15-12
Conference	8-6		5-9
Home	14-4		13-4
Away	5-4		2-8
Top 25	3-4		1-6
RPI Top 50	4-6		2-8

It's Senior Night tonight at the RBC, and round two of the "Man, we better win at least ONE of these final home games" homestand.

Once again the Pack faces off against a team that leans heavily on its point guard for production, though BC -- moreso than Maryland -- can turn to others to pick up the slack when needed.

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Sophomores Joe Trapani and Rakim Sanders are the second and third-leading scorers for the Eagles, chipping in 14.1 and 12.3 points per game to augment Tyrese Rice's team-leading 17.5. Trapani leads the team in defensive rebounds and Sanders is tied with Rice for the top number of steals.

Make no mistake about it, though: This is Rice's team. As he goes, so do the Eagles. That he leads the team in points per game and dishes out over five assists per game is indication enough that the offense of BC flows through Rice, point blank.

As Steven pointed out earlier this week, the Eagles are an offensive rebounding monster, second-best in the ACC and one of the best in the country. Keep an eye on BC's Corey Raji and the Pack's ability to keep him off the offensive glass. If Raji wins too many battles on the Eagle's boards, it could be bad news for State.

For the Pack, tonight not only means the final game of Ben McCauley and Courtney Fells' (and possibly Brandon Costner's) careers, it's also the last good look the team will have at halting a skid that could possibly derail and nullify the modicum of progress the team seemed to be making to close out the year. A loss tonight would be the third in a row, with a road date with a good but inconsistent Miami team to finish the year.

Win both these games and that mojo can be regained heading into the ACC tournament. Lose both, and it won't be pretty.

State is a two-point favorite at home, but as they say the home team gets three points, Vegas feels like this one is a pick-em with a slight edge to the Eagles.

McCauley, Fells and Costner have a golden opportunity to conclude their careers at the RBC Center on a high note. It will be critical that they come out and play to their potential.

View the complete entry of "A look at BC, again"

The Stretch Run

Just four games remain in the 2008-09 regular season. The older I get, the faster these seasons come and go.

I can't imagine how fast the seasons will fly by once I hit 45 or 50. No wonder our graybeards talk about the titles of '74 and '83 as though they happened just yesteryear. I'm sure it feels that way to them, just as 1996 seems like just a few years ago to me.

Nevertheless, there's the slate ahead. You can see what Ken Pomeroy's computers tell us will happen. It's a relatively safe prediction of 7-9, and one that -- had you offered it to State fans the day after the loss to VT that put State at 2-6 in-conference -- I'm sure most would have taken.

If we assume KenPom's predictions all hold true -- which they won't, but let's assume they do -- then here are your final regular season standings:

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Rank	Team	Conference Record
1	UNC	13-3
2	Wake	11-5
3	Clemson	11-5
4	Duke	11-5
5	BC	9-7
6	FSU	9-7
7	Miami	8-8
8	NC State	7-9
9	Va Tech	6-10
10	Maryland	6-10
11	UVa	4-12
12	GT	2-14

If this plays out as predicted, the Virginia Tech loss still hurts but not as much as perhaps some folks felt initially. It would have State at an 8-8 finish, tied for the 7th position in the conference with Miami, a five-spot improvement from last season's debacle.

In terms of the ACC tournament, though, the impact would not be felt. According to the ACC's tiebreaker policy (if I've deciphered it properly), State would have an identical W/L record against UNC, the same number of wins (one) but one more loss against the tied teams in second place (Wake, Clemson, Duke) and therefore be seeded 8th at the ACC tournament regardless.

Again, this all assumes that Ken's predictions all play out as his computers project.

Looking ahead, let's look at some best case/worse case scenarios for the Pack based on these predictions:

Absolute Best Case Scenario: We win out, of course. Doing so would put us at 9-7 in a three-way tie for 5th with BC and FSU, with both schools holding the tiebreaker over us in tourney seeding (BC's win against UNC earns them the nod over us in our tie). It would take a near miracle for this to occur -- Maryland and Boston College at home are loseable games, but defeating both Miami AND Wake Forest on the road is asking a lot of the basketball gods. It can be done, but only if all the pieces fall the right way (turnovers and rebounding numbers would have to improve dramatically). Chance of Success = 1 in 10

Highly Optimistic Scenario: Win three of four to finish 8-8. Win both home games against Maryland and Boston College, and steal one on the road, most likely at Miami. An 8-8 finish with a win over the 'Canes would put the Pack in sole possession of 7th place in the league. Chance of Success = 1 in 3

More Realistic But Given Our Track Record Still Cautiously Optimistic Scenario: Win the home games and lose the road games to finish 7-9 and in sole possession of 8th place in the league. Miami is going to be a really tough out in Jack McClinton's final game at Miami. He'll be so fired up that he'll be making them from the gigantic U. Chance of Success = 2 of 3

Pretty Darn Pessemistic Scenario: State loses three of their final four games. Either Tyrese Rice or Greivis Vasquez explode like they've shown they can do and/or State turns it over 50% of their possessions to lose both of their road games and one of the final two at home. A 6-10 finish would put the Pack either tied with Maryland for 10th (with a loss to BC) or in sole possession of 10th (with a loss to Maryland). Either way, not good. Chance of Failure = 1 in 3

Holy Hell The World Is Crashing Down Around Us, But Hey, We're State, This Is Just What Happens To Us Scenario: State loses all four games in an epic collapse not seen since, well, last year. Both Rice AND Vasquez go off and State never gets the ball past midcourt. State would finish 5-11, just one game ahead of Virginia in 10th place, and the ward drums would start to pound pretty loudly. Chance of The Apocolypse = 1 in 10

I can live with 7-9. I'd love 8-8. To finish 9-7 is asking too much, even for this dyed-in-the-wool fan.

But 6-10 or 5-11 finishes would be major disappointments and put a very sour taste in everyone's mouths at the end of the season, for the second year in a row.

View the complete entry of "The Stretch Run"

A quick look at BC

Work beckons, but here's a quick look at BC before the weekend comes:

Stats by StatSheet.com

I think the big key this week, of course, will be neutralizing Tyrese Rice. He killed the Tar Heels and he'll kill a good number of teams that don't take him out of their offense. Stop Rice and you have a good chance of winning. Don't, and well...

View the complete entry of "A quick look at BC"