The Stretch Run

Just four games remain in the 2008-09 regular season. The older I get, the faster these seasons come and go.

I can't imagine how fast the seasons will fly by once I hit 45 or 50. No wonder our graybeards talk about the titles of '74 and '83 as though they happened just yesteryear. I'm sure it feels that way to them, just as 1996 seems like just a few years ago to me.

Nevertheless, there's the slate ahead. You can see what Ken Pomeroy's computers tell us will happen. It's a relatively safe prediction of 7-9, and one that -- had you offered it to State fans the day after the loss to VT that put State at 2-6 in-conference -- I'm sure most would have taken.

If we assume KenPom's predictions all hold true -- which they won't, but let's assume they do -- then here are your final regular season standings:

(Continues)

Rank	Team	Conference Record
1	UNC	13-3
2	Wake	11-5
3	Clemson	11-5
4	Duke	11-5
5	BC	9-7
6	FSU	9-7
7	Miami	8-8
8	NC State	7-9
9	Va Tech	6-10
10	Maryland	6-10
11	UVa	4-12
12	GT	2-14

If this plays out as predicted, the Virginia Tech loss still hurts but not as much as perhaps some folks felt initially. It would have State at an 8-8 finish, tied for the 7th position in the conference with Miami, a five-spot improvement from last season's debacle.

In terms of the ACC tournament, though, the impact would not be felt. According to the ACC's tiebreaker policy (if I've deciphered it properly), State would have an identical W/L record against UNC, the same number of wins (one) but one more loss against the tied teams in second place (Wake, Clemson, Duke) and therefore be seeded 8th at the ACC tournament regardless.

Again, this all assumes that Ken's predictions all play out as his computers project.

Looking ahead, let's look at some best case/worse case scenarios for the Pack based on these predictions:

Absolute Best Case Scenario: We win out, of course. Doing so would put us at 9-7 in a three-way tie for 5th with BC and FSU, with both schools holding the tiebreaker over us in tourney seeding (BC's win against UNC earns them the nod over us in our tie). It would take a near miracle for this to occur -- Maryland and Boston College at home are loseable games, but defeating both Miami AND Wake Forest on the road is asking a lot of the basketball gods. It can be done, but only if all the pieces fall the right way (turnovers and rebounding numbers would have to improve dramatically). Chance of Success = 1 in 10

Highly Optimistic Scenario: Win three of four to finish 8-8. Win both home games against Maryland and Boston College, and steal one on the road, most likely at Miami. An 8-8 finish with a win over the 'Canes would put the Pack in sole possession of 7th place in the league. Chance of Success = 1 in 3

More Realistic But Given Our Track Record Still Cautiously Optimistic Scenario: Win the home games and lose the road games to finish 7-9 and in sole possession of 8th place in the league. Miami is going to be a really tough out in Jack McClinton's final game at Miami. He'll be so fired up that he'll be making them from the gigantic U. Chance of Success = 2 of 3

Pretty Darn Pessemistic Scenario: State loses three of their final four games. Either Tyrese Rice or Greivis Vasquez explode like they've shown they can do and/or State turns it over 50% of their possessions to lose both of their road games and one of the final two at home. A 6-10 finish would put the Pack either tied with Maryland for 10th (with a loss to BC) or in sole possession of 10th (with a loss to Maryland). Either way, not good. Chance of Failure = 1 in 3

Holy Hell The World Is Crashing Down Around Us, But Hey, We're State, This Is Just What Happens To Us Scenario: State loses all four games in an epic collapse not seen since, well, last year. Both Rice AND Vasquez go off and State never gets the ball past midcourt. State would finish 5-11, just one game ahead of Virginia in 10th place, and the ward drums would start to pound pretty loudly. Chance of The Apocolypse = 1 in 10

I can live with 7-9. I'd love 8-8. To finish 9-7 is asking too much, even for this dyed-in-the-wool fan.

But 6-10 or 5-11 finishes would be major disappointments and put a very sour taste in everyone's mouths at the end of the season, for the second year in a row.

View the complete entry of "The Stretch Run"

State 72, UVa 67

Stats by StatSheet.com

Stats by StatSheet.com

AP recap

The high points:

• State's underclassmen stepped up huge, particularly C.J. Williams and Dennis Horner, who finished with 16 and 12 points, respectively. Williams was particularly efficient, scoring his 16 in just 17 minutes of action.
  
  
• Courtney Fells was clutch at the end, sinking four key FTs and executing the end-of-game fouling strategy to perfection.
  
  
• The Pack played well defensively and offensively at times, jumping out to 18 and 17-point leads twice in the game.
  
  
• Virginia's primary weapon, Sylven Landesberg, was held relatively in check. He finished the game with 16--two below his average--on four of 14 shooting (28%).

The low points:

• The Pack gave back both leads at the end of both halves. The Cavaliers cut the first half margin down to two right before Degand's half-ending drive and bucket. They also erased the Pack's 17-point lead down to three before Fells iced the game at the line. Different game, same story.
  
  
• Javier Gonzalez finished the game with zero assists and seven turnovers. (He was perfect from the field, however. 4-4.)
  
  
• State once again was out-rebounded and turned over more by an opponent.

(Continues)

Hey, a win is a win. Virginia came in red-hot after wins against Clemson and Virginia Tech and showed plenty of fight. Most teams, when down nearly 20, usually pack it in when on the road. That they didn't is a testament to the improvement of the Hoos this year.

It's also indicative of State's M.O. this year. Get up big and coast. I'm not sure what the root of it all is, or what Sid can say (or should not be saying) to right this trend. I can't fathom that Sid is purposefully "taking the air out of the ball," but the net effect is the same. There's something in this team that, when standing at the crossroads of a double-digit lead, refuses to go down the path of increasing said lead and instead meanders down the road of "Hey, let's make this thing close!"

There's a lot of ballyhoo on the monkey message boards about Sidney's end-of-game fouling strategy. I'll be honest, I've neither coached nor played organized ball long enough to know what the percentages are in that situation. It worked out this time, but the meltdown that would've occurred had it blown up in Sid's face--on top of surrendering the huge second-half lead--would've been epic in proportion. I'm inclined the agree with this line of thinking, from the post-game thread:

I really liked the second foul with 3.7 seconds. Excellent strategy.

But, the first foul was waaaaay tooooo early. Too many bad things can happen. Cannot inbounds the ball. Turn it over on the inbounds. Miss the free throws and allow the other team with win with a two or a three. Just too much can go wrong with that much time to play.

But, with 3.7 .... that's a great time to do it.........

It's an interesting strategy, for sure, and something taken straight from the V playbook.

On to Wake Forest in Winston-Salem.

View the complete entry of "State 72, UVa 67"

A look at UVA

Stats by StatSheet.com

Per Game Stats | Stat Totals | Advanced Stats

		PTS	FGM	FGA	FTM	FTA	3PM	3PA	REB	OR	DR	AST	TO	STL	BLK	PF	DQs	TF	E
	UVA	1590	571	1368	325	439	123	402	923	299	540	285	314	141	90	418	9	0	0
	NCST	1772	622	1309	370	516	158	414	971	279	603	366	353	142	98	373	8	1	0
	UVA Opponents	1611	577	1328	309	445	148	433	867	259	530	318	305	144	109	392	9	0	0
	NCST Opponents	1649	617	1454	282	390	131	411	856	294	492	268	281	210	79	461	15	3	1

Per Game Stats | Stat Totals | Advanced Stats

		POS	PPG	PPP	FLR%	Eff	eFG%	TS%	FTR	2P%	FTP%	3P%	OR%	DR%	A%	A/T	T%	S%	B%
	UVA	1588.0	72.2	1.0	51.7	100.1	46.2	50.4	32.1	56.4	20.4	23.2	36.1	67.6	49.9	0.91	19.8	8.9	6.8
	NCST	1627.0	67.8	1.09	54.2	108.9	53.6	57.0	39.4	52.4	20.9	26.7	36.2	67.2	58.8	1.04	21.7	8.7	6.7
	UVA Opponents	1588.0	72.2	1.01	51.2	101.4	49.0	52.3	33.5	53.3	19.2	27.6	32.4	63.9	55.1	1.04	19.2	9.1	8.0
	NCST Opponents	1627.0	67.8	1.01	52.5	101.4	46.9	50.3	26.8	58.9	17.1	23.8	32.8	63.8	43.4	0.95	17.3	12.9	6.0

Rank and Records	UVA		NCST
RPI	#84		#87
Strength of Schedule	#1		#76
Overall	9-13		14-10
Conference	3-8		4-7
Home	8-6		12-3
Away	1-7		2-7
Top 25	1-5		1-5
RPI Top 50	1-8		2-7

The Trap Game. The most dreaded part of any schedule -- the game following or preceding a huge rivalry game that should be an easy "W."

This weekend's game against UVa is the very definition of a trap game: A game against a team perceived to be weak based on overall record but coming in on a two-game winning streak against highly ranked Clemson and a strong Virginia Tech squad. A game following an emotional, hard-fought game against your bitter rival.

(Continues)

Thankfully for the Pack, this game is at home and the Cavaliers have won only one game all year on the road (@GT). Conversely, the Pack has played well at home in recent weeks.

Still...something about this game scares the hell out of me. Sylvan Landesberg (who?) has been tearing it up lately from the guard position, scoring 23 and 19 against the Tigers and Hokies, respectively. They've been playing with three guards on the court and only turned the ball over 10 times against VT. Given that State likes to play "big" and likes to turn the ball over even more, those two elements just aren't jiving in the Pack's favor.

This game will be a big test for the Pack, mentally. Can they get off the mat after the Carolina loss and get up early on a team they should? Further, can they STAY up on a team they've gotten a lead against, putting the proverbial "foot on the throat" of the opponent? We saw some of that against Georgia Tech late in the game. Will we see it again?

The game tips at 1:00 and can be seen on Raycom TV.

View the complete entry of "A look at UVA"