The Stretch Run

Just four games remain in the 2008-09 regular season. The older I get, the faster these seasons come and go.

I can't imagine how fast the seasons will fly by once I hit 45 or 50. No wonder our graybeards talk about the titles of '74 and '83 as though they happened just yesteryear. I'm sure it feels that way to them, just as 1996 seems like just a few years ago to me.

Nevertheless, there's the slate ahead. You can see what Ken Pomeroy's computers tell us will happen. It's a relatively safe prediction of 7-9, and one that -- had you offered it to State fans the day after the loss to VT that put State at 2-6 in-conference -- I'm sure most would have taken.

If we assume KenPom's predictions all hold true -- which they won't, but let's assume they do -- then here are your final regular season standings:

(Continues)

Rank	Team	Conference Record
1	UNC	13-3
2	Wake	11-5
3	Clemson	11-5
4	Duke	11-5
5	BC	9-7
6	FSU	9-7
7	Miami	8-8
8	NC State	7-9
9	Va Tech	6-10
10	Maryland	6-10
11	UVa	4-12
12	GT	2-14

If this plays out as predicted, the Virginia Tech loss still hurts but not as much as perhaps some folks felt initially. It would have State at an 8-8 finish, tied for the 7th position in the conference with Miami, a five-spot improvement from last season's debacle.

In terms of the ACC tournament, though, the impact would not be felt. According to the ACC's tiebreaker policy (if I've deciphered it properly), State would have an identical W/L record against UNC, the same number of wins (one) but one more loss against the tied teams in second place (Wake, Clemson, Duke) and therefore be seeded 8th at the ACC tournament regardless.

Again, this all assumes that Ken's predictions all play out as his computers project.

Looking ahead, let's look at some best case/worse case scenarios for the Pack based on these predictions:

Absolute Best Case Scenario: We win out, of course. Doing so would put us at 9-7 in a three-way tie for 5th with BC and FSU, with both schools holding the tiebreaker over us in tourney seeding (BC's win against UNC earns them the nod over us in our tie). It would take a near miracle for this to occur -- Maryland and Boston College at home are loseable games, but defeating both Miami AND Wake Forest on the road is asking a lot of the basketball gods. It can be done, but only if all the pieces fall the right way (turnovers and rebounding numbers would have to improve dramatically). Chance of Success = 1 in 10

Highly Optimistic Scenario: Win three of four to finish 8-8. Win both home games against Maryland and Boston College, and steal one on the road, most likely at Miami. An 8-8 finish with a win over the 'Canes would put the Pack in sole possession of 7th place in the league. Chance of Success = 1 in 3

More Realistic But Given Our Track Record Still Cautiously Optimistic Scenario: Win the home games and lose the road games to finish 7-9 and in sole possession of 8th place in the league. Miami is going to be a really tough out in Jack McClinton's final game at Miami. He'll be so fired up that he'll be making them from the gigantic U. Chance of Success = 2 of 3

Pretty Darn Pessemistic Scenario: State loses three of their final four games. Either Tyrese Rice or Greivis Vasquez explode like they've shown they can do and/or State turns it over 50% of their possessions to lose both of their road games and one of the final two at home. A 6-10 finish would put the Pack either tied with Maryland for 10th (with a loss to BC) or in sole possession of 10th (with a loss to Maryland). Either way, not good. Chance of Failure = 1 in 3

Holy Hell The World Is Crashing Down Around Us, But Hey, We're State, This Is Just What Happens To Us Scenario: State loses all four games in an epic collapse not seen since, well, last year. Both Rice AND Vasquez go off and State never gets the ball past midcourt. State would finish 5-11, just one game ahead of Virginia in 10th place, and the ward drums would start to pound pretty loudly. Chance of The Apocolypse = 1 in 10

I can live with 7-9. I'd love 8-8. To finish 9-7 is asking too much, even for this dyed-in-the-wool fan.

But 6-10 or 5-11 finishes would be major disappointments and put a very sour taste in everyone's mouths at the end of the season, for the second year in a row.

View the complete entry of "The Stretch Run"

ACC Tournament Eve

Ah...can you smell that?

That crisp...something...in the air that lets you know that the best four weekends in sports is right around the bend?

Yes, it's tournament time. The time when all the highs and lows (Lowes?) of the last four months of college basketball get condensed into seeding for the two best events in college sports, possibly in ALL of sport, the ACC and NCAA Tournaments.

I'm a North Carolina native; born in Charlotte, raised in Fayetteville and schooled in Raleigh. The ACC Tournament is a birthright of mine, and I heartily claim it as such.

I grew up a State fan, and loved the Pack, but I truly got hooked back in 1990 when Georgia Tech was tearing it up with "Lethal Weapon 3"--the tandem of Dennis Scott, Brian Oliver and Kenny Anderson. I remember watching the championship game that year at the house of one of our church members who'd invited our family over for some cards and drinks. No one downstairs seemed to care that the title game was on, but I snuck away to the homeowner's bedroom to catch it. It seemed like Dennis Scott could hit from anywhere, and Kenny Anderson was easily one of the best point guards I'd ever seen play the game.

In school on Fridays--back when the league was only eight members deep--TVs from the AV room were tough to come by; they were all rented out by teachers showing the games in class. I consider those moments, watching early-90s tournament basketball in class, as crucial a part of my North Carolina education as anything else.

In 1995, Randolph Childress gave us one of the great moments in tournament history, scoring 107 points over three games--including the winning two in overtime--to beat Carolina in the finals. He also gave us one of the greatest crossovers of all time, breaking down Jeff McInnis and daring him to get back up before drilling a three. (And you can't mention Jeff McInnis in one breath without mentioning Phil Ford's wife in the next, but I digress...)



I remember as a freshman at State in 1997, hanging around the dorm as Spring break was starting, delaying my departure so I could catch our games Thursday and Friday. Then watching the game Saturday at a friend's house. Then dying on Sunday. It was glorious and devastating.

I suppose there's no reason to think that it can't all happen again this year. The deck looks as stacked against us as it ever has this year, but we potentially face two teams in the opening rounds that we've already beaten this year, Miami and VT, so to say that we CAN'T make another run would be a fallacy.

After all, it's tournament time.

View the complete entry of "ACC Tournament Eve"